September Inflation Could Hit 7%. What That Leaves of the ₱60 Raise

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) releases September inflation on Tuesday, October 6. Every forecast points the same way: up.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) expects September inflation between 6.4% and 7.4%. That would end four straight months of easing. August came in at 6.1%, down from a three-year high of 7.2% in April. If the figure reaches the top of that range, it would be the highest in about three and a half years.

It arrives just as Metro Manila workers got their first paychecks at the new ₱755 minimum wage. So the question for a lot of payslips is how much of that ₱60 is left once prices are taken into account.

What economists expect

Most of the push is coming from food. Habagat rains and flooding in September made it harder to grow and transport perishables, which pushed up prices for vegetables, fruits and fish. When fewer trucks reach the markets, those prices rise first.

The BSP also points to fuel and the peso. The Philippines imports almost all its oil and pays for it in dollars, so a weaker peso makes every liter cost more even when world prices don't change. The peso hit a record low of ₱62.86 to the dollar on September 14. Diesel rose more than ₱18 a liter in September before a partial rollback on September 29.

Where prices were already high in August

Even when headline inflation eased in August, the things a minimum-wage household spends on most kept climbing:

Poorer households have been hit harder. Inflation for the bottom 30% of households by income was 8.2% in August, unchanged from July, according to the PSA. Food made up more than half of that.

Rice alone added 1.3 percentage points to August's headline rate. That's more than a fifth of the total, from a single item. Rice weighs heavily in the index because households spend so much of their budget on it, so a big rice increase moves the overall number more than almost anything else. In practical terms, rice that cost ₱1,000 a year ago now costs about ₱1,194.

The ₱60 raise, adjusted for prices

Going from ₱695 to ₱755 is an 8.6% raise. Inflation measures how much prices rose over the past year. Comparing the two tells you how much more the new wage actually buys than the old one did a year ago.

At each level of September inflation, here's what ₱755 is worth in last year's prices:

The raise adds ₱1,320 a month on paper over 22 working days. Adjusted for a year of price increases, it's worth somewhere between ₱176 and ₱321.

There are two reasons it shrinks so much:

• The old rate stayed in place for 14 months. ₱695 took effect on July 18, 2025, and stayed the legal minimum until September 25, 2026. Prices rose for that entire stretch. The ₱60 mostly makes up for that lost ground.
• The bigger raise is still in court. The ₱85 under Wage Order NCR-27, including the ₱25 meant for January 2027, has been stuck since a Pasig court blocked it. NCR-28 covers only the ₱60.

Metro Manila is doing a bit better

Those figures use the national rate. Inflation in Metro Manila has been lower. It was 4.1% in August, compared with 6.1% nationally. If Metro Manila's September rate is close to that, ₱755 is worth about ₱725 in last year's prices. That's a real gain of roughly ₱30 a day, or ₱666 a month.

The PSA releases regional figures together with the national number, and we'll update this post with them on October 6.

What this means for your budget

• Your take-home pay grew by less than ₱60 a day. SSS, PhilHealth and Pag-IBIG contributions are computed on the higher pay. Minimum-wage earners stay exempt from income tax. The minimum wage calculator shows your net amount.
• Your extra commuting costs eat into the raise. In our diesel rollback post, the jeepney fare increase came to about ₱158 a month, close to the entire real value of the raise at the high end of the forecast range.
• The raise also adds to your benefits. Holiday pay, overtime, night differential and 13th month pay are all computed from the new daily rate. Your 13th month this December will be partly based on ₱755.

What comes next

• Tuesday, October 6: the PSA releases September inflation, with regional and bottom-30% household figures.
• Thursday, October 22: the BSP Monetary Board meets. It has raised the policy rate three times this year, to 5.0%, and forecasts 2026 inflation averaging 6.4%. A September reading near 7% makes a fourth hike more likely. That affects loan and savings rates.
• NCR-27 case: the outcome decides whether the ₱25 January tranche and any back pay for July 25 to September 25 are ever paid.

RELATED: ₱755 a Day in Metro Manila · Diesel Rolled Back ₱7.57. Why Your Commute Still Costs More · BSP Raises Key Rate to 5% · Minimum Wage Calculator

Sources

• Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas – Month-ahead inflation forecast for September 2026
• Philippine Statistics Authority – Summary Inflation Report, CPI for the Bottom 30% Income Households: August 2026