Taxes & Income
Diesel dropped ₱7.57 a liter on September 29, but jeepney and bus fares don't move with the pump. Gasoline barely budged, and the DOE now sees gasoline and kerosene going up again next week. Here's where prices stand compared with September 1 and what that means for a monthly commute.
By Chai Cabana·How we check our numbers
On Tuesday, September 29, oil companies cut diesel by ₱7.57 a liter and kerosene by ₱5.85. It was the first rollback after three straight weeks of steep increases. It's welcome news, but the cut probably won't show up in your commuting costs.
The reason is that fares and pump prices run on different clocks. Pump prices change every week. Fares change only when the Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board (LTFRB) issues an order, and the new fares took effect just a day before the rollback. We covered those fare increases in our post on the September fare hike and transport strike.
| Product | Up, September 1–28 | Rollback, September 29 | Still up since September 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diesel | +₱18.31/L | −₱7.57/L | +₱10.74/L |
| Kerosene | +₱16.67/L | −₱5.85/L | +₱10.82/L |
| Gasoline | +₱15.25/L | −₱0.24/L | +₱15.01/L |
The Department of Energy (DOE) linked the drop to lower global oil prices. Supply from Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline is coming back, and Iran has signaled it's willing to negotiate over the Strait of Hormuz.
Gasoline is the problem. It went up more than ₱15 a liter in September and came down just 24 centavos. If you drive a car or ride a motorcycle, the rollback did almost nothing for you.
The DOE gave its estimate for the adjustment due Tuesday, October 6 on Friday, October 2:
| Product | Estimated change, October 6 |
|---|---|
| Diesel | about −₱1.00/L |
| Gasoline | about +₱1.50/L |
| Kerosene | about +₱2.00/L |
The DOE's Oil Industry Management Bureau says global prices have gone up again this week. Diesel is still expected to come down only because last week's cut was so large. This week's increase doesn't erase all of it, so part of the rollback carries over. Gasoline and kerosene had much smaller cuts, so they go straight back up.
He also flagged a risk for the rest of October. China has announced it will suspend exports of refined fuel to Asia-Pacific buyers, which could tighten supply across the region.
If the estimates hold, here's where prices stand compared with September 1 after October 6:
Final figures come out on Monday, when oil companies announce their adjustments. These are estimates and will change.
Pump prices are deregulated. Oil companies adjust them every week based on the previous week's global trading, and the changes usually take effect on Tuesdays.
Public transport fares work differently. They're set by LTFRB orders after operators petition for them and hearings are held. The new fares that started on September 28 were approved back in March. They were then suspended for six months while the government tried other ways to hold costs down.
A diesel rollback doesn't reduce fares automatically. Fares would only go down if the LTFRB issued a new order, and none has been announced. The new taxi flag-down rates are labeled provisional, and the LTFRB has said those could still change.
Operators also point out that diesel is still almost ₱10 a liter above where it was on September 1. For bus companies, fuel makes up 45% to 60% of operating costs.
Here's what the changes since September 1 add up to over a 22-day working month:
| How you get to work | Assumption | Extra cost per month |
|---|---|---|
| Two traditional jeepneys each way, 8 km each | Fare goes from ₱20.20 to ₱22 per ride | about ₱158 |
| Motorcycle | 1 liter of gasoline a day | about ₱330 (₱363 if next week's hike holds) |
| Small car | 3 liters of gasoline a day | about ₱991 (₱1,090 if next week's hike holds) |
For comparison, the new ₱755 minimum wage in Metro Manila adds about ₱1,320 a month over 22 working days, before deductions. A minimum-wage worker who drives a small car could spend about three-quarters of that raise on gasoline. Jeepney riders lose a smaller share, but the extra ₱158 is a fixed cost that won't come back down when diesel drops.
Your own numbers depend on your route and your vehicle. Take your actual liters per day, multiply by 22 working days, then multiply by the per-liter change in the table above.
RELATED: Fares Up, Diesel Up ₱18 in September · ₱755 a Day in Metro Manila · Minimum Wage Calculator
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